Our thoughts on the coup in Gabon: too early to say how it will pan out. Ali Bongo was not popular on the street, but international stakeholders valued the stability he brought. If a credible interim leader steps up, we think the coup may well succeed.
The coup in Gabon is one of a series of successful coups in West and Central Africa, mostly in francophone countries: in Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso and Niger. This is a level of political instability not seen for 30 years.
Together, these political upheavals signal the degree of distress caused by the global cost of living crisis. They also outline how France’s power and diplomacy in West Africa is being undermined.
Ali Bongo is close to France, which provides vital currency support across francophone West and Central Africa in the form of the West African CFA and the Central African CFA, both of which are pegged to the Euro. France has also provided security support in the Sahel region, which it is now in the process of scaling back.
France has condemned the coup and asked for the election results to be respected. It still has 370 military personnel based in Gabon. It probably won’t stage a military intervention and any work it does to help restore Ali Bongo will be done in secret, through diplomatic and intelligence channels.
Because of the conflict in Ukraine and the role that Russian mercenary group Wagner plays in Africa, it is fashionable to see Russian influence at every turn. But there is little indication as yet of Russian involvement in the Gabon coup or a role for Wagner post-coup.
China has called for an immediate return to normal order and to protect the safety of President Ali Bongo. Chinese President Xi Jinping met with Ali Bongo in April 2023. China accounts for 63% of Gabonese exports and is a hugely important stakeholder.
It’s not yet clear who is backing the military junta and whether it will succeed. For now, it has seized state television and managed to put Ali Bongo under house arrest. It has cancelled the election. The coup leaders enjoy some popular support with ordinary Gabonese sick of 56 years of one party rule. They do not yet appear to have the backing of France, China, US or any major power broker.
The junta has closed Gabon’s borders, which will affect imports and exports. Gabon could face sanctions from the EU or the US, for example, although this could just be targeted at coup leaders (and if so, may be entirely ineffective).
Certainly ECOWAS (Gabon is not a member of ECOWAS), the EU, China do not want any further instability in the region. The worst-case scenario is civil war, but we think that is unlikely.
Who emerges as the interim president and who they choose to align with will determine what happens next. Ultimately, Ali Bongo provided stability but on a mandate that had little legitimacy and if the coup leaders can propose a credible candidate that may be enough for everyone to work with.
