A case of tortoise and hare? Naivas is opening four new supermarkets just as its competitors struggle with debt and operational difficulties. The big question is whether it can manage the financial and operational demands of its expansion strategy.
The family-owned Naivas Supermarkets chain is set to open a hypermarket in Nairobi by the end of June, with other three stores to follow. It’s a bold move at a time when other Kenyan supermarket chains such as Nakumatt, Tusky’s and Uchumi are suffering growth pains.
The major problem for other retailers has been using debt to expand quickly, and testing their operational capabilities by expanding outside Kenya. By contrast, Naivas has been more cautious. If it drives this growth phase without resorting to bank loans it will be in a strong position to take on weakened competitors.
Naivas has certainly shown real patience. Tusky’s opened nine stores in 2016. Nakumatt opened four new stores, after several years of expanding its store network. Naivas opened just one store in 2016 and was the only one of Kenya’s main supermarket chains not to expand outside the country. Nakumatt and Uchumi have been forced to shut their operations in Uganda and Tanzania, having suffered unsustainable losses over several years. Although Tusky’s recently opened a new store in Uganda it is not certain how sustainable its network is there in the long term.
The first of the Naivas’s new stores will stand virtually across Ridgeways Mall where market leader Nakumatt has one of its main stores. The new Naivas site is also a few minutes away from the new Two Rivers Mall, which houses Carrefour. Naivas is betting on targeting a less affluent consumer than those that visit either of its competitors and has said that the new store is meant to meet demand in a very “underserved area.” The risk is that it has miscalculated demand – both Tusky’s and Nakumatt have closed underperforming stores in Nairobi.
Naivas is going for a tortoise and hare strategy – hitting hard right as its major competitors are struggling to keep their heads above water. If – still a big if – it can manage the financial and operational demands of its new stores then it can potentially take a much more advantageous position in the Kenyan supermarket sector. But we still see risks – family disagreements, shortage of cash flow, operational stretch and no sign that Naivas’s patience alone is enough to dismiss those risks.
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